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螞蟻金服企業信用貸款_寬松信貸不能穩定增長,經濟趨勢改善了伊德宏觀經濟

股權融資 銀行

    本文作者:寇寧(Z0002132),一德期貨宏觀戰略研究中心總監  報告發布時間:2019年3月11日  社融信貸超預期回落  貨幣增長穩中回升  2月,國內社會融資規模及新增信貸超預期回落,其中,國內社會融資規模7030億元,環比大幅少增39323億元,不及13000億元的市場預期;國內新增信貸8858億元,環比少增23442億元,低于9500億元的市場預期(見圖1)。2月,M2同比回落至8%,不及8.4%的前值及預期;M1同比由1月0.4%的低點回升至2%,符合市場預期(見圖2)。下載APP 閱讀本文更深度報道  專項債券穩步增長  長期信貸大幅回落  1. 表外融資持續收縮,專項債券穩步增長  2月社會融資的大幅回落,主要受到新增人民幣貸款及表外融資持續收縮的影響。2月,社融口徑下新增人民幣貸款7641億元,同比、環比分別少增2558億元、28027億元,新增人民幣貸款的下降主要受到春節假期的季節性因素影響,同時也與1月信貸集中投放力度較強有關。表外融資2月全面下滑,新增委托貸、信托貸及未貼現銀行承兌匯票分別下降508億元、37億元、3103億元,表外融資合計環比多減7080億元,同比多減3664億元,表外融資持續回落表明監管加強對社會融資的壓力依然存在。同時,地方政府專項債維持年初以來的快速增長,環比、同比分別多增683億元、1663億元,是2月社會融資的主要支撐,顯示基建穩增長穩步推進。此外,受政策支持的影響,債券融資2月盡管受春節因素影響環比少增4185億元,但同比多增161億元,總體維持較快增長,是當前實體企業融資的重要渠道。  2. 企業長期大幅回落,實體需求依舊疲弱  2月,企業中長期貸款的大幅回落是導致新增信貸超預期下滑的主因。2月,國內新增信貸環比少增23442億元,同比多增465億元,其中,新增企業信貸環比少增17459億元、同比多增8894億元,而新增企業信貸中,新增企業中長期貸款環比、同比分別少增8873億元、1458億元。考慮春節因素對企業信貸的擾動,1-2月,國內新增信貸同比累計多增3765億元,而企業中長期貸款同比少增758億元,仍是國內信貸的主要拖累。在寬信用的背景下,2月,銀行間7天回購利率維持在1月的低位,因此,2月企業貸款的收縮反映出當前實體經濟投融資需求依舊不強,信貸需求疲弱的現狀。此外,票據融資2月環比少增3465億元,同比多增2470億元,顯示票據融資總體受到表外未貼現銀行承兌匯票下降的影響,但仍是商業銀行重要的資產投向。居民貸款2月環比、同比分別少增10604億元、3457億元,1-2月累計環比、同比分別少增5210億元、2575億元,顯示今年以來,在寬信用政策的引導下,商業銀行對居民信貸資產配置出現下降。  3. 春節影響消退,M1顯著回升  2月,新增人民幣存款同比多增16111億元,其中,企業存款同比多增12000億元,是支撐商業銀行存款增長的主因,居民存款同比少增15400億元,伴隨企業流動性改善,M1同比增長由1月的0.4%顯著回升至2%,顯示出隨著1月春節錯位影響的消退, M1增長隨之恢復。此外,財政存款2月同比多增創出8529億元的歷史新高,受此影響,M2同比繼續走低,但隨著開年社融信貸的總體恢復,預計M2后市將企穩回升。  寬信用不及穩增長  經濟難言趨勢改善  2月,國內社融、信貸環比雙雙出超預期大幅回落,主因季節性因素消退的影響,綜合考察1-2月總體情況,社融、信貸累計同比分別多增10696億元、3765億元,顯示寬信用政策總體取得了效果。但從今年以來的融資數據看,相對于基建穩增長政策的加速推進,但寬信用實施效果總體有限,主要原因仍在于實體經濟依舊疲弱,企業投融資需求不強。因此,盡管隨著基建穩增長政策的起效,經濟增長上半年預期企穩,但經濟大概率為恢復性改善,難以出現趨勢性的回升,對股票市場來說,年初以來股市的上漲主因來自對2018年緊縮政策的修復,股市估值恢復,但恐難出現趨勢性行情,年內股市結構性機會大于周期性機會,結構上,預計成長股好于大盤股,防御板塊強于周期板塊。  請認真閱讀投資報告類 ? 《免責聲明》本文首發于微信公眾號:一德菁英匯。文章內容屬作者個人觀點,不代表網立場。投資者據此操作,風險請自擔。

ben wen zuo zhe: kou ning Z0002132, yi de qi huo hong guan zhan lue yan jiu zhong xin zong jian   bao gao fa bu shi jian: 2019 nian 3 yue 11 ri   she rong xin dai chao yu qi hui luo   huo bi zeng zhang wen zhong hui sheng   2 yue, guo nei she hui rong zi gui mo ji xin zeng xin dai chao yu qi hui luo, qi zhong, guo nei she hui rong zi gui mo 7030 yi yuan, huan bi da fu shao zeng 39323 yi yuan, bu ji 13000 yi yuan de shi chang yu qi guo nei xin zeng xin dai 8858 yi yuan, huan bi shao zeng 23442 yi yuan, di yu 9500 yi yuan de shi chang yu qi jian tu 1. 2 yue, M2 tong bi hui luo zhi 8, bu ji 8. 4 de qian zhi ji yu qi M1 tong bi you 1 yue 0. 4 de di dian hui sheng zhi 2, fu he shi chang yu qi jian tu 2. xia zai APP yue du ben wen geng shen du bao dao   zhuan xiang zhai quan wen bu zeng zhang   chang qi xin dai da fu hui luo   1. biao wai rong zi chi xu shou suo, zhuan xiang zhai quan wen bu zeng zhang   2 yue she hui rong zi de da fu hui luo, zhu yao shou dao xin zeng ren min bi dai kuan ji biao wai rong zi chi xu shou suo de ying xiang. 2 yue, she rong kou jing xia xin zeng ren min bi dai kuan 7641 yi yuan, tong bi huan bi fen bie shao zeng 2558 yi yuan 28027 yi yuan, xin zeng ren min bi dai kuan de xia jiang zhu yao shou dao chun jie jia qi de ji jie xing yin su ying xiang, tong shi ye yu 1 yue xin dai ji zhong tou fang li du jiao qiang you guan. biao wai rong zi 2 yue quan mian xia hua, xin zeng wei tuo dai xin tuo dai ji wei tie xian yin hang cheng dui hui piao fen bie xia jiang 508 yi yuan 37 yi yuan 3103 yi yuan, biao wai rong zi he ji huan bi duo jian 7080 yi yuan, tong bi duo jian 3664 yi yuan, biao wai rong zi chi xu hui luo biao ming jian guan jia qiang dui she hui rong zi de ya li yi ran cun zai. tong shi, di fang zheng fu zhuan xiang zhai wei chi nian chu yi lai de kuai su zeng zhang, huan bi tong bi fen bie duo zeng 683 yi yuan 1663 yi yuan, shi 2 yue she hui rong zi de zhu yao zhi cheng, xian shi ji jian wen zeng zhang wen bu tui jin. ci wai, shou zheng ce zhi chi de ying xiang, zhai quan rong zi 2 yue jin guan shou chun jie yin su ying xiang huan bi shao zeng 4185 yi yuan, dan tong bi duo zeng 161 yi yuan, zong ti wei chi jiao kuai zeng zhang, shi dang qian shi ti qi ye rong zi de zhong yao qu dao.   2. qi ye chang qi da fu hui luo, shi ti xu qiu yi jiu pi ruo   2 yue, qi ye zhong chang qi dai kuan de da fu hui luo shi dao zhi xin zeng xin dai chao yu qi xia hua de zhu yin. 2 yue, guo nei xin zeng xin dai huan bi shao zeng 23442 yi yuan, tong bi duo zeng 465 yi yuan, qi zhong, xin zeng qi ye xin dai huan bi shao zeng 17459 yi yuan tong bi duo zeng 8894 yi yuan, er xin zeng qi ye xin dai zhong, xin zeng qi ye zhong chang qi dai kuan huan bi tong bi fen bie shao zeng 8873 yi yuan 1458 yi yuan. kao lv chun jie yin su dui qi ye xin dai de rao dong, 12 yue, guo nei xin zeng xin dai tong bi lei ji duo zeng 3765 yi yuan, er qi ye zhong chang qi dai kuan tong bi shao zeng 758 yi yuan, reng shi guo nei xin dai de zhu yao tuo lei. zai kuan xin yong de bei jing xia, 2 yue, yin hang jian 7 tian hui gou li lv wei chi zai 1 yue de di wei, yin ci, 2 yue qi ye dai kuan de shou suo fan ying chu dang qian shi ti jing ji tou rong zi xu qiu yi jiu bu qiang, xin dai xu qiu pi ruo de xian zhuang. ci wai, piao ju rong zi 2 yue huan bi shao zeng 3465 yi yuan, tong bi duo zeng 2470 yi yuan, xian shi piao ju rong zi zong ti shou dao biao wai wei tie xian yin hang cheng dui hui piao xia jiang de ying xiang, dan reng shi shang ye yin hang zhong yao de zi chan tou xiang. ju min dai kuan 2 yue huan bi tong bi fen bie shao zeng 10604 yi yuan 3457 yi yuan, 12 yue lei ji huan bi tong bi fen bie shao zeng 5210 yi yuan 2575 yi yuan, xian shi jin nian yi lai, zai kuan xin yong zheng ce de yin dao xia, shang ye yin hang dui ju min xin dai zi chan pei zhi chu xian xia jiang.   3. chun jie ying xiang xiao tui, M1 xian zhu hui sheng   2 yue, xin zeng ren min bi cun kuan tong bi duo zeng 16111 yi yuan, qi zhong, qi ye cun kuan tong bi duo zeng 12000 yi yuan, shi zhi cheng shang ye yin hang cun kuan zeng zhang de zhu yin, ju min cun kuan tong bi shao zeng 15400 yi yuan, ban sui qi ye liu dong xing gai shan, M1 tong bi zeng zhang you 1 yue de 0. 4 xian zhu hui sheng zhi 2, xian shi chu sui zhe 1 yue chun jie cuo wei ying xiang de xiao tui, M1 zeng chang sui zhi hui fu. ci wai, cai zheng cun kuan 2 yue tong bi duo zeng chuang chu 8529 yi yuan de li shi xin gao, shou ci ying xiang, M2 tong bi ji xu zou di, dan sui zhe kai nian she rong xin dai de zong ti hui fu, yu ji M2 hou shi jiang qi wen hui sheng.   kuan xin yong bu ji wen zeng zhang   jing ji nan yan qu shi gai shan   2 yue, guo nei she rong xin dai huan bi shuang shuang chu chao yu qi da fu hui luo, zhu yin ji jie xing yin su xiao tui de ying xiang, zong he kao cha 12 yue zong ti qing kuang, she rong xin dai lei ji tong bi fen bie duo zeng 10696 yi yuan 3765 yi yuan, xian shi kuan xin yong zheng ce zong ti qu de le xiao guo. dan cong jin nian yi lai de rong zi shu ju kan, xiang dui yu ji jian wen zeng zhang zheng ce de jia su tui jin, dan kuan xin yong shi shi xiao guo zong ti you xian, zhu yao yuan yin reng zai yu shi ti jing ji yi jiu pi ruo, qi ye tou rong zi xu qiu bu qiang. yin ci, jin guan sui zhe ji jian wen zeng zhang zheng ce de qi xiao, jing ji zeng zhang shang ban nian yu qi qi wen, dan jing ji da gai lv wei hui fu xing gai shan, nan yi chu xian qu shi xing de hui sheng, dui gu piao shi chang lai shuo, nian chu yi lai gu shi de shang zhang zhu yin lai zi dui 2018 nian jin suo zheng ce de xiu fu, gu shi gu zhi hui fu, dan kong nan chu xian qu shi xing xing qing, nian nei gu shi jie gou xing ji hui da yu zhou qi xing ji hui, jie gou shang, yu ji cheng chang gu hao yu da pan gu, fang yu ban kuai qiang yu zhou qi ban kuai.   qing ren zhen yue du tou zi bao gao lei ? mian ze sheng ming ben wen shou fa yu wei xin gong zhong hao: yi de jing ying hui. wen zhang nei rong shu zuo zhe ge ren guan dian, bu dai biao wang li chang. tou zi zhe ju ci cao zuo, feng xian qing zi dan.

    

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